KEEPING THE DREAM ALIVE
05 April 2022
New Poll Helps Explain The SNP’s Reluctance to Answer Difficult Economic Questions
YouGov polling carried out on behalf of These Islands1Poll of 1,029 Scottish Adults (16+), field work 29-31 March 2022 highlights a series of problems facing the SNP in their push for a second independence referendum:
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Voters don’t want a second independence referendum on their proposed timescale: only 36% support an independence referendum being held in 2023
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The majority don’t support independence: when asked as a Yes/No question the split is 47/53 in favour of No
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There is evidence of acquiescence bias favouring the Yes side and the SNP may not benefit from their preferred question in a future referendum: when asked as a Remain/Leave question, the split is 59/41 in favour of Remain
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There is widespread confusion around the SNP’s policies for independence: over 70% of those polled admitted to being “not very” or “not at all” clear on most policy issues critical to Scotland’s economic future
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If clarity around those policy choices were to lead to more voters believing that public spending cuts would be the result, support for independence would be significantly weakened: 22% of independence supporters would be more likely to oppose independence if they believed it would lead to public spending cuts
The first and most immediate barrier to the SNP’s plans is that most people simply don’t want another referendum on their proposed timescale. Only 36% of those polled think there should be another referendum in 2023; excluding "don’t know" the balance is 60:40 against a 2023 referendum.
The second problem the SNP face is the stubborn lack of majority support for their cause. When the independence question is asked using the 2014 Yes/No formulation2“Should Scotland be an independent country?” the balance excluding "don’t know" and "would not vote" is 47:53 in favour of No (remarkably close to the 45:55 result in 2014).
To test the hypothesis that acquiescence bias3https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquiescence_bias favours the Yes side (and recognising the precedent set by the EU referendum) YouGov’s polling for These Islands used a 50:50 sample split to test the impact of framing the question as “Should Scotland remain inside or leave the United Kingdom?”. Framed this way the balance excluding "don’t know" and "would not vote" is 59:41 in favour of Remain. This starkly illustrates the importance of how the referendum question is posed and it should not be assumed that the SNP will benefit from their preferred Yes/No framing if there is to be a next time.
But the biggest hurdle the SNP face is not about the timing, current levels of support, or the wording of a future referendum question – it’s how to communicate their economic case for independence without shedding support.
When asked to choose three from a pre-selected list of issues “which are most important when determining your view on Scottish independence”, 58% of those who favoured independence chose “whether or not an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU”, 44% “the economic consequences of Scottish Independence” and 24% “whether or not Trident submarines would remain based in an independent Scotland”. Those who oppose independence weighted the issues differently with 65% selecting “economic consequences”, 31% “the level of the state pension” and 27% “whether or not a hard border would be created between England and an independent Scotland”.
How and when an independent Scotland might join the EU is the subject of some debate, but 69% of independence supporters state that they are clear on the SNP’s policy in this regard. When it comes to the question of whether Trident should remain in Scottish waters, 57% of independence supporters believe they are clear on the SNP’s policy.
But if the battle lines around EU membership and Trident are clearly drawn, the same cannot be said about the SNP’s proposed economic policies and their consequences. Over 70% of those polled - including the majority of those who indicate they support independence – responded that they are “not very clear” or “not at all clear” about the following SNP policies for an independent Scotland: 73% unclear what currency would be used, 74% unclear on the proposed nature of the border with England, 77% unclear who would pay the State Pension and 74% unclear whether or not public spending would have to be cut.
There is clearly a fundamental difference in perception around the likely economic consequences of separation between those on either side of the debate.
When asked “it if became clear that an independent Scotland would have to cut public spending” fully 22% of those who indicated support for independence answered that they would be slightly or much more likely to oppose independence. This contrasts with only 8% who would be more likely to oppose independence “if more powers were devolved to the Scottish Government”. It seems that Scotland’s constitutional future may be in large part determined by voters’ perceptions of how public spending in Scotland would be impacted by independence.
Context matters. The Scottish Government’s own figures show Scotland currently and consistently benefits from UK-wide pooling and sharing to the tune of c.£12 billion per annum4https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i377/gers_2021_a_deep_dive.aspx and that Scotland’s pre-pandemic fiscal deficit was running at 8 - 9%5https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2020-21/documents/ (compared to the EU’s Excessive Deficit Threshold of 3%).
The challenge for the SNP is therefore to make an economic case for independence that recognises this starting point, realistically addresses the challenges associated with separating from the UK and shows how an independent Scotland could be on track to satisfy the EU’s requirements for a stable currency and sustainable fiscal deficit. That means factoring for the inevitable loss of that fiscal transfer, the negative economic impact of creating a customs border with England, the fiscal and trade balance challenges associated with launching a new currency, and the economic shock associated with unpicking the UK’s deeply integrated machinery of state.
If the SNP can credibly make a case for doing all of that without assuming drastic cuts to public spending, they have yet to do so. In 2018 when their much anticipated “Sustainable Growth Commission” concluded that an independent Scotland would require austerity (by cutting public spending as a proportion of GDP) to achieve fiscal sustainability6https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i301/growth_commission_response_executive_summary.aspx , it was quickly shelved. This polling perhaps indicates why: if honesty about the economic consequences of independence leads to more voters understanding the likelihood (some might say the inevitability) of public spending cuts, support for independence would plummet.
This is the paradox facing the SNP. Pursuing the politics of grievance and selling the dream of independence keeps them in power; but if they are honest about the economic implications of turning that dream into reality, the dream becomes more distant and their grip over Scottish politics weakens. How long the Scottish electorate will tolerate being held in a state of constitutional uncertainty by a party who avoid answering the difficult questions, only time will tell.
Full data tables from YouGov available here.
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