AN INCONVENIENT FACT

(Neil Gray, Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy)

Background

Almost exactly a year ago, on 9th November 2022, These Islands published the report Wrong With The Wind^{1https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx}, which debunked the Scottish Government’s oft-repeated claim that Scotland had 25% of Europe’s potential offshore wind resource. Freedom of Information responses also revealed how the claim continued to appear in multiple government publications long after officials had privately concluded it could not be justified.

On 15th November 2022, the Scottish Government responded to the These Islands report in the Scottish Parliament. The Minister for Green Skills, Circular Economy and Biodiversity, Lorna Slater, said:^{2https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/official-report/search-what-was-said-in-parliament/meeting-of-parliament-15-11-2022?meeting=13988&iob=126730#orscontributions_M16215E355P844C2440404}

“At the time when they cited it, Scottish ministers understood that statistic to be accurate. Now that it has come to our attention that it is not, we are working to update the statistics on how our offshore wind potential compares with that of other countries. We will update the Parliament once that is done and, at that point, we will consider how any legacy documents might need to be updated. The key point, however, is that Scotland’s enormous potential for offshore wind has not changed.”

There have also been 16 written questions on the statistic, and former Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition, Michael Matheson, committed on several occasions to update parliament once further work was complete. For example:^{3https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/questions-and-answers/question?ref=S6W-12251}

“The Scottish Government has committed to undertake further work to quantify Scotland’s offshore wind potential. We will update Parliament once this work is concluded, and at that point also consider which legacy documents, including the National Strategy for Economic Transformation, may need to be updated." (2nd December 2022)

Matheson also promised to update the Scottish Affairs Committee at Westminster:^{4https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/34263/documents/188584/default/}

“I hope this clarifies our position on this matter, and I will ensure that we provide you with a further update upon completion of our work on the scale of Scotland's potential for offshore wind.” (Letter to Pete Wishart MP, Chair of Scottish Affairs Committee, 3rd March 2023)

New developments

Since it had still not been updated (or so we thought), These Islands recently submitted an FOI request for Scottish Government correspondence and documentation discussing the updating of the statistic. The response to that request was received on 8th November 2023. It has not been published on the Scottish Government website, so is not publicly available at present.

It revealed two important things.
 

(1.) The buried update

The 25% statistic actually has been updated (to 6.8%, as explained below). The update was included in an annex to a letter sent to Edward Mountain MSP, the Convener of the Scottish Parliament’s Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee. That letter is dated 21st September 2023, and was published on the Scottish Parliament website the following day.^{5https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/committees/current-and-previous-committees/session-6-net-zero-energy-and-transport-committee/correspondence/2023/update-on-renewables-and-wind-power-potential} To find it now you would have to be looking at the fifth page of results in a search for correspondence sent to that particular committee.

The Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy, Neil Gray, initially wanted there to be no public record of the updated statistic at all.

In an email dated 19th September 2023, an unnamed official in the office of Neil Gray writes:

“Cab Sec has commented that the narrative works well and the stats are both useful and impressive. However, Cab Sec is not sure we need to draw further attention to the issue with a letter to committee unless we committed to publicise our update. Grateful if officials could confirm whether there was a commitment to make the update public.”

Another unnamed official replies:

“Yes, SG has committed several times to updating Parliament/publishing updated metrics in due course.”

And so the letter is sent to the committee Convener, Edward Mountain MSP. But an important decision is also recorded about publicity:

“No proactive communications are recommended. Comms colleagues will prepare reactive lines in the event of media queries following the update to parliament.”

The “update to parliament” referenced here is the letter to the committee. There has been no statement in parliament, and this presumably explains why the significance (indeed even the existence) of the letter has slipped under the radar.
 

(2.) The obfuscation

Rather than simply updating the discredited 25% statistic on Scotland’s share of Europe's offshore wind potential, an annex to the letter introduces (in 12 separate bullet points) a plethora of figures about renewable energy in Scotland.

These reveal that the Scottish Government’s new estimate (replacing the 25% figure) for Scotland’s share of Europe’s offshore wind potential is less than 6.8%. But the letter avoids spelling this out.

Only two of the bullet points have any connection to the original 25% statistic.

• Bullet point 7: “For offshore wind specifically, capacity in Scotland is over 2GW. This is 16% of UK installed offshore wind capacity, and approximately 7% of European and 3% of world total installed offshore wind capacity.”

Bullet point 7 is about installed capacity, rather than potential. But it does accurately calculate Scotland’s share of the current European total.

• Bullet point 9: “11GW of offshore wind in Scotland would represent 22% of the UK ambition for 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, and approximately 10% of the EU ambition for 111GW offshore renewables by 2030.”

Bullet point 9 is the closest thing to a genuine attempt to update the statistic. In terms of 2030 ambitions, Scotland does have 22% of the UK’s total for offshore wind. Wrong With The Wind discussed a range of estimates for Scotland’s share of the UK potential, from 17% to 36%, so this is completely in line with the These Islands report.

However, “Scotland would represent… 10% of the EU ambition” is highly misleading. The casual reader is presumably supposed to infer that Scotland has about 10% of Europe’s total potential.

Scotland’s 11GW by 2030 ambition is numerically equal to 10% of the EU’s 111GW by 2030 ambition. But it doesn't represent 10% of the EU total, because Scotland is not part of that total. Scotland is not in the EU.

Scotland’s share of Europe, defined as the EU plus the UK, is actually 11 / (111 + 50) = 6.8%

And we shouldn’t forget about Norway (also not in the EU). It doesn’t have a 2030 target, but Norway does have a target of 30GW of offshore wind by 2040.^{6https://windeurope.org/newsroom/news/norway-announces-big-new-offshore-wind-targets/} It’s pretty clear that any reasonable estimate for what is achievable in Norway by 2030 would push Scotland’s share of a genuinely European total down towards 6%.

6% was the upper end of the range of realistic estimates constructed in Wrong With The Wind.

The Scottish Government has very quietly vindicated the These Islands analysis. For over a decade, the Scottish Government was overstating Scotland’s share of Europe’s offshore wind potential by a factor of about four times.

There is significant public interest in the Scottish Government’s handling of statistics around renewable energy. Neil Gray should now make a full statement on the updating of this statistic to the Scottish Parliament, thereby properly fulfilling his predecessor’s multiple commitments to do so.