PER CAPITA EMAILS: UNREDACTED
23 November 2023
In September, the initial response to a These Islands Freedom of Information response became a controversial story. That story has now changed, in a significant way. After successfully appealing the substantial redactions, we are publishing the fully unredacted “per capita” emails.
The story, as it first appeared, was this: at FMQs on 22nd June 2022, Humza Yousaf claimed that Scotland had the majority of the UK’s renewables. This was false, as Liam Kerr MSP noted in a Point of Order. Heavily redacted emails suggested civil servants expended considerable effort to come up with a face-saving correction for the First Minister, which would avoid him having to correct the record in a straightforwardly factual way.1Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word
These Islands appealed the redactions in the initial FOI response. This is an excerpt from that appeal:
Please review the above referenced FOI response. All of the redactions under section 30 of FOISA are unjustifiable. As you will be aware, on 29th August 2023, the First Minister wrote to several MSPs and the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament, to explain what he “had intended to say” at FMQs on 22nd June 2023.
If the First Minister’s letter is truthful, the 27 pages of emails released in this FOI response are no more than a straightforward conversation about something which the First Minister had always intended to say. In which case section 30 of FOISA would not apply, since that exemption applies where disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice.
You don’t need “free and frank advice” if you are simply remembering what it was you had originally intended to say.
The appeal was successful – all the redactions (except those for personal information) were removed. The unredacted emails (along with one missed in the initial response) have now been released.2https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202300367955/
They tell a story which is significantly different to the one which appeared to be the case before the redactions were uncovered. It (mostly) exonerates the civil servants, but casts the First Minister himself in a significantly different light.
The three key revelations are:
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Civil servants originally recommended that the First Minister make a strictly factual correction, which would have replaced the false statistic with the correct one. The First Minister rejected this advice.
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On Friday 30th June 2023 (8 days after Humza Yousaf used the false statistic at FMQs) the Office of the First Minister sends an email which reads: “The First Minister has asked, is it right that we have the most renewable capacity per head, compared to elsewhere in the UK?” Humza Yousaf has serious questions to answer over how he can have “intended to say” something on 22nd June if he was asking officials whether it was true on 30th June.
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Civil servants discussed concerns that putting out certain statistics would make the value of the single GB electricity market to Scotland too obvious: “The only angle of challenge I can think of on this is the point raised a few times previously: that renewables sited in Scotland are therefore heavily subsidised by consumers across the rest of GB (because the subsidies for renewables are recovered from consumer bills at the GB level)”
Detailed Timeline
The majority of this material was originally redacted, but those redactions were overturned on appeal.
Thursday 22nd June 2023
At FMQs, Humza Yousaf makes this statement in response to a question from Anas Sarwar:
“Of course the GB energy company would be based in Scotland because we have the majority of the renewables and the natural resources here in Scotland.”
At the conclusion of FMQs, Liam Kerr MSP makes a Point of Order, noting that Humza Yousaf’s statement was false.
Within a couple of hours an unknown official sends an email in response to a request (from another unknown official) for what the correct figures are. They have calculated that (as of year-end 2022) Scotland actually had 26% of the UK’s renewable electricity (capacity and generation). They were also asked to calculate pipeline figures, but that task is deferred.
Another unnamed official replies to the above email, to emphasise they only really care about the pipeline figures if they show that Scotland has more than 50% of the UK total.
Friday 23rd June 2022
The person who knows about the pipeline is back at work, and provides those figures. They show that Scotland does not have a majority of the UK pipeline, under any definition.
Monday 26th June 2023
Officials discuss the arrival (the previous Friday) of a These Islands FOI request, which asked for information held by the Scottish Government substantiating the statement made by Humza Yousaf at FMQs.
“the statement is inaccurate, so there is no information to provide and I’m not sure what we can or should provide in this situation.”
They question whether the Official Report is going to be corrected (odd, since they have conceded the statement was inaccurate) and also whether the First Minister needs to sign off on the FOI response, because (despite being marked as routine) it had come from These Islands (presumably our FOIs are typically red flagged).
Tuesday 27th June 2023
An unnamed official sends an email which opens: “So we’ve had a conversation with SpAds about this. Key thing we need to do first is ensure that we have some cover in FMQs where this will likely come up.”
Another unnamed official replies to that email: “I’ve drafted some lines as requested”. Those lines are factually accurate.
Friday 30th June 2023
An unnamed official sends an email to the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser (OCEA) seeking their approval for a statement based on the lines drafted above. The OCEA gives that approval.
Later the same day, an unnamed official sends a “high importance” email to The Office of the First Minister, recommending that he correct the Official Report with the statement agreed above with the OCEA.
The First Minister is presumably unhappy with the recommended correction, because that evening the Office of the First Minister replies, saying:
“The First Minister has asked, is it right that we have the most renewable capacity per head, compared to elsewhere in the UK?”
Minutes later, Ragne Low (Deputy Director, Directorate for Energy and Climate Change) replies, saying: “Can OCEA colleagues answer this? The answer is yes but we would need an accurate way of expressing it.”
Monday 3rd July 2023
First thing Monday morning, an unnamed official in the OCEA replies to Ragne Low (copying several unnamed officials) with a table showing installed renewable capacity per capita, by UK nation.
Tuesday 4th July 2023
After some further discussion on Monday which refined the wording, by Tuesday morning a new statement has been agreed:
“In 2022, Scotland had by far the highest volume of installed renewables capacity per capita of any part of the UK - more than double that of Wales, and more than four times that of England.”
Interestingly, an unnamed official is concerned that this new statement makes it too obvious how important the single GB electricity market is to Scotland.
“The only angle of challenge I can think of on this is the point raised a few times previously: that renewables sited in Scotland are therefore heavily subsidised by consumers across the rest of GB (because the subsidies for renewables are recovered from consumer bills at the GB level)”
That afternoon, the “new line for consideration by FM” is emailed to the Office of the First Minister:
Thursday 6th July 2023
An unnamed official emails the Office of the First Minister:
“With apologies for chasing do we have an update from FM on this? There is an outstanding FOI on this and should FM agree with the proposed recommendation I’ll need to go through the correcting the record process before I can respond to the FOI.”
The Office of the First Minister replies: “This is still with FM at the moment but I have chased for clearance so will come back to you asap.”
Monday 10th July 2023
Another chasing email to the First Minister: “Is there any news yet on this?”
An hour later, an unnamed official emails the OCEA with an apologetic question about another new statement:
“Of course the GB energy company would be based in Scotland because we have the majority of the renewables per capita and the natural resources here in Scotland.”
This is the first time the statistically meaningless concept of “majority per capita” is introduced. The idea presumably comes from the Office of the First Minister.
Remarkably, despite the new statement being statistically meaningless, the OCEA approves it:
A conversation then occurs involving Ragne Low, who has concerns about “the majority of the natural resources”
Tuesday 11th July 2023
Officials discuss the need to avoid coming up with statistics that will collapse under scrutiny from outsiders.
“My initial idea is a no goer. The more we looked at it, the more concerned we were that it could end up causing more problems down the line (in a similar manner to the offshore wind potential figure).”
Thursday 13th July 2023
“Please find below a new line for the urgent consideration of the first minister.” - the “natural resources” line has been dropped.
Thursday 20th July 2023
The First Minister wants “natural resources” back in.
Friday 21st July 2023
The First Minister has made his decision.
It gets the approval of the OCEA (despite being statistically meaningless).
And Humza Yousaf writes to the Presiding Officer (and several MSPs) to tell them about his correction. His letter includes the claim that the correction was what he “had intended to say” on 22nd June 2023 – this is inconsistent with the narrative revealed by the unredacted emails.
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