DEFENCE SPENDING IN GERS: ANATOMY OF A MYTH

The day the 2024-25 Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures were published, the Scottish Government put out a news release which included the following quote, attributed to Finance Secretary Shona Robison:

“GERS allocates Scotland a population share of reserved UK spending rather than accounting for real expenditure. For example, UK defence expenditure is listed as £5.1 billion, but only £2.1 billion was actually spent with industry in Scotland in 2023-24.”

This statement is both incorrect and misleading.

Firstly, the assertion that “GERS allocates Scotland a population share of reserved UK spending” is incorrect. Only reserved spending classed as “non-identifiable” is allocated on a population share basis^{1This is explained in the GERS expenditure methodology and can be verified by looking at the detail in the supplementary expenditure database. To be totally correct we should note that a small number of non-identifiable expenditure items are allocated on different bases (e.g. GVA or accounting related PSF adjustments), but this is not a material point.} and this accounts for just 43% of reserved UK spending.^{2This figure is easily derived (for 2023-24) by filtering the supplementary expenditure database to only include reserved expenditure (i.e. exclude Scottish Government, Local Government Scotland and Central Exchequer (PSP)) and observing the ID and Non-ID totals.}

Most reserved spending is classed as “identifiable” and allocated on a far more sophisticated basis, typically reflecting actual spend in Scotland. For example, social protection spending (pensions and benefits), which accounts for 80% of “identifiable” reserved spending included in GERS, is based on actual spending in Scotland.^{3To be strictly correct, Scotland is allocated a population share of overseas pension costs and pension delivery costs, but this represents <4% of the total social protection spend.}

Secondly, the very clear implication that there is a £3.0 billion difference between defence spending allocated to Scotland and defence spending which takes place in Scotland is highly misleading. The two figures quoted are not remotely comparable.

They are not even figures for the same financial year. Robison has compared spend with industry in Scotland for 2023-24 to the GERS defence spending for 2024-25. She should have been consistent and cited the GERS defence spending for 2023-24, which was £4.6 billion. But this is a trivial issue compared to the fact that defence spending figure listed in GERS includes much more that than just spending with industry.

The £2.1 billion figure for defence spending with industry in Scotland in 2023-24 is correct according to the MOD’s regional expenditure report, but MOD expenditure with UK industry and commerce accounts for just 50% of the UK’s total defence spending.^{4Total MOD expenditure with UK industry and commerce was £28.8bn in 2023-24 according to the MOD report, compared with total UK defence spending (2023-24) in GERS of £56.8bn.} Scotland’s finance secretary is making an apples vs pears comparison.

The next biggest item of UK defence spending is service and civilian personnel costs of £14.5 billion.^{5https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/defence-departmental-resources-2024/mod-departmental-resources-2024} There are nearly 14,000 regular military and MOD civilian personnel based in Scotland, 7.4% of the UK total.^{6https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/location-statistics-for-uk-regular-armed-forces-and-civilians-2025}

Coincidentally, defence spending with industry in Scotland is also 7.4% of the UK total. So, with respect to the two largest components of defence spending, 7.4% of that spending does occur in Scotland. GERS allocates Scotland an 8.0% population share, so the difference between what is allocated to Scotland and what is spent in Scotland is relatively trivial - something like £400 million rather than the £3 billion claimed by Robison.

But even that much smaller number is misleading. Scotland doesn’t only benefit from defence spending which takes place in Scotland. UK contributions to NATO operations as well as RAF aircraft and Royal Navy carriers based in England all contribute to the security of Scotland’s coastline.^{7https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/behind-the-numbers-gers-and-scotlands-5-1bn-defence/}

The misleading claim was repeated pretty much verbatim in a social media video posted by the SNP’s Business Minister Ivan McKee.^{8https://x.com/ivan_mckee/status/1956083144643211728?s=46&t=y9v1mXDn2DQJqjCpgZcKXg} While McKee at least specified that the £2.1 billion figure was defence spending with industry, that important qualifier was dropped when Gordon Macdonald MSP made the following post on X (viewed 16,000 times at the time of writing):

Across on TikTok, Math Campbell-Sturgess (SNP Candidate for Dumbarton) posted a video (799 likes at the time of posting) in which he referenced the GERS figures and asserted that: “£5.1 billion of defence money is Scotland’s proportional share, but that doesn’t mean we spend £5.1 billion of defence money in Scotland – no, we spend closer to two."

Through an official government news release, Scotland’s Finance Secretary has created a false narrative which has now become an outright falsehood being promoted by SNP activists on social media. This should concern anybody interested in the problem of misinformation in political debate.