GERS 2025/26

The annual publication of the Scottish Government’s GERS report (which describes Scotland’s fiscal position under current constitutional arrangements) always triggers heated debate around what the figures do and do not tell us. Unfortunately this debate tends to create more heat than light.

In the hope of grounding the discourse in a better understanding of what the figures actually show us, we have created gers-explorer.com. This is an interactive tool that allows users to surf the GERS data and customise a wide range of charts. Detailed descriptions explain what each revenue and expenditure line contains, users can drill down into line-level spending allocations and a series of insights offer editorialised interpretations of the data.

The following observations are based on charts created using the gers-explorer.com tool.

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Scotland’s GERS deficit continues to be much greater than the EU’s 3% excessive deficit threshold.

The gap between Scotland’s deficit and the UK’s overall has continued to (slightly) widen.

The scale of the challenge Scotland faces to match the UK’s deficit, meet the EU’s excessive deficit threshold or eliminate the deficit entirely is significant - a £15 - 25 billion challenge.

The only thing which has materially changed the gap between Scotland’s GERS deficit and the UK’s overall has been North Sea revenues - strip those out and the deficit gap between Scotland and the UK is consistently around 5% of GDP.

The main driver of Scotland’s higher deficit is the higher levels of public spending per head from which Scotland benefits - over £2,500 p.a. more for every man, woman and child in Scotland.

Scotland’s higher spending levels per head are similar to those of London and Northern Ireland.

Higher spending per head for Scotland occurs across almost all spending categories. Social protection (pensions and benefits) is the largest - but far from only - source of difference.

The gap in social protection (pensions and benefits) spending per head between Scotland and the UK average has been growing dramatically. Social protection spending in Scotland is now £725 per head higher than the UK average.

Excluding North Sea revenues, Scotland’s onshore revenue generation per head lags the UK average. The inclusion of North Sea revenues shows Scotland currently generating the same level of revenue per head as the UK overall.

Scotland performs relatively well in terms of revenue generation per head when compared with other devolved nations and most English regions.

The Energy Profits Levy - which the SNP has recently been objecting to - makes up most of the North Sea revenues attributable to Scotland.

Despite higher income tax rates in Scotland, the gap between Scottish and UK average income tax (and NIC) revenue raised per head has widened.

To summarise: higher spending (primarily) and lower revenue per head (slightly) explain the large and persistent onshore deficit gap that exists between Scotland and the UK overall.

North Sea revenues (including the Energy Profits Levy in recent years) sometimes partially obscure this onshore deficit gap.

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Before the Independence referendum, Alex Salmond used the GERS figures to proudly claim: “At the last count, Scotland received 9.6 per cent of the UK’s taxation, and received 9.3 per cent of the UK’s spending”. The latest GERS figures tell a very different story: in 2025/26 Scotland generated 8.0% of the UK’s revenues while benefiting from 9.1% of the UK’s public spending. 

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Whatever other debates the GERS figures trigger, there should be no doubt about this one simple fact: by benefitting from a higher share of public spending than the share of revenue it contributes to the UK, Scotland "gets back" more than it "sends to Westminster".