THE INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: A DECADE ON AND A DECADE LOST
17 September 2024
Cat Headley, Vice-Chair of These Islands, reflects on the 10-year anniversary of the independence referendum.
Moving into a new decade of life always prompts a bit of soul searching. Some reflections on what has been, what might have been, and what could be to come.
When I turned 40 this summer, I was no different. The years since my last Big Birthday had brought incredible opportunities that I would have previously scarcely imagined possible, new life long friends, challenges and some losses.
It also caused me to reflect that my 30s had passed almost entirely in the shadow of the 2014 independence referendum. Ten years since Scotland chose to remain part of the United Kingdom have now passed, prompting in many quarters a bit of political soul searching.
Very little of what has happened in Scottish or UK politics since that time I would have foreseen in the early hours of the 19th of September when I was returning from the Edinburgh count of votes, where the national result was declared. I had spent the previous year volunteering for Better Together and the experience would be personally transformative. It changed the direction of not just my 30s but the rest of my life. But that morning, I naively believed that our politics would move on from the question of whether Scotland should be an independent country.
Scotland has suffered a lost decade since. We have had a party of government whose uniting and defining purpose is to separate Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom. This has meant that every other policy and political choice has been seen through the prism of that priority. Nothing could be done that might negatively impact the ability to get independence support over the line. This coincided with a series of external political events that could not have been more perfectly tuned to increase support for separation had they been dreamt up at an SNP strategy away day: an unexpected Conservative majority in 2015, the Brexit referendum and ensuing political paralysis, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Covid and lockdown parties, Liz Truss’ calamitous budget followed by yet another Tory PM… And yet, support for the union has remained incredibly resilient. The dial has barely changed in the decade that has been, but with our politics more toxic and debate more polarised in the interim.
Following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in early 2023 and the many chickens which have since come home to the SNP roost, it is the perceived unionist wisdom that the moment of maximum danger for the union has now passed. When I was knocking doors for the Labour Party in the general election campaign this summer, the sense of disappointment with the SNP wasn’t just palpable, it was visceral. But a belief that Scotland ought to eventually become independent was still held by some of these voters, even if they didn’t think it was an immediate priority. It is also true that support for independence remains incredibly resilient, even if a significant section of it is of a very hypothetical and “all things being equal” variety.
These Islands was formed to make the positive case for the United Kingdom remaining united and in recent years, we have provided vital analysis exposing misleading nationalist narratives, particularly on the subject of electricity costs in Scotland and renewable energy. We will continue to contribute to the debate as we move into the next decade.
While this might be a moment where the risk of another referendum and the cause of independence is receding, we cannot take this for granted. Just as I did not foresee that the constitution would remain the principal political focus of our nation for most of the next decade in September 2014, very few of us could have known that the union would come to seem so much safer within 18 months of December 2022. Political winds can change and change quickly.
I still believe that it is better for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom. Yes, the economics matter in this assessment but it is, and has always been, much more than this. My sense of identity allows me to be Scottish and British. It allows me to take pride in a national story of the United Kingdom (without ignoring the shameful parts). It allows me to believe in a common purpose and fraternity that can bring out the best in all of us across these islands.
With even senior SNP figures conceding that there will be no second referendum any time soon, there is a real and meaningful prospect of politics in Scotland returning to crucial issues that have been ignored for a decade. Tackling our problems in the here and now will be challenging, but it is much more likely to happen once we stop re-litigating the independence referendum of ten years ago. Proving that a devolved Scotland and wider United Kingdom can be changed for the better is the best way of keeping us together.
As I embark upon my 40s, I have an optimism that is both personal and political.
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